Opportunities and outlook report

World trade volumes should continue to pick up in 2025 and increase by around 3 %. Increasing trade between emerging markets and a boost in investment and consumption in many developed and emerging markets will underpin the expansion. However, the outlook still holds uncertainties. The trend of increasingly restrictive trade policies could increase again with higher US tariffs and lead to diversion of global trade flows. In the short term, goods trading could experience anticipatory effects due to expected customs increases, but then weaken again. Changes in production structures and relocations are also likely to continue to manifest in trade shifts.[2] 

Industrialised countries

In the US, growth is expected to moderately decline to 2.3 % in 2025. This is due to a declining private consumption. Uncertainties exist with future fiscal policy impacts.[3] 

In the eurozone, a subdued recovery should begin. According to the European Commission, growth is expected to increase to 1.3 % in 2025 (previous year: 0.8 %), but the differences between the individual eurozone countries remain large. The boost is driven mainly by private consumption and gradually increasing corporate investments. The declining impact of restrictive monetary policy and the easing of funding conditions are likely to enable domestic demand to increase over time. Further stimulus is expected from the “Next Generation EU” fund.[4]  Assuming an initially unchanged trade policy of important trade partners or possible anticipatory effects, foreign demand should increase slightly and support exports.[5] 

Germany’s real gross domestic product should increase by 0.4 % in 2025, following the slight recession of the previous year. The increased purchasing power is likely to enable a sluggish boost to private consumption. Further monetary easing is likely to support capital-intensive industrial goods production in particular. Nevertheless, the structural challenges for the German industry remain, especially in the area of energy-intensive production and due to the stronger technological competition at the international level. With these increasing competitive challenges, the export sector is less able to take advantage of the economic tailwinds from international industrial business than in previous phases. Due to stronger imports, change in the balance of exports and imports is likely to be slightly negative.[6] 

Emerging and developing countries

In emerging markets, aggregate growth of 4.1 % should be close to the level of the previous year. Increasing business confidence, a rebound in global trade, and increasingly cheaper domestic and international financing conditions should have an effect and thus stimulate investment.

In terms of regions, South and East Asia will continue to experience the highest growth rates. While China’s economic growth should continue to level out, improved technological competitiveness could partially offset potential US trade barriers on a global scale. Continued dynamic growth is expected for the Indian economy.

Central Asia is likely to receive further boosts thanks to the numerous infrastructure projects along the Middle Corridor. Some flows of goods between China and Europe are expected to move via the Central Asia and Turkey route.[7]  In Turkey, the high key interest rates are expected to have a slowing effect on economic activity at first. With a progressing disinflation process and an expected easing of restrictive monetary policy, economic recovery is likely to resume by the end of the year. Many Eastern European countries should benefit from the slight upturn in the eurozone.[8] 

Accelerated growth is expected for Africa, driven by a better outlook for countries exporting industrial raw materials. In Latin America, some countries’ close trade relations with the US could put a strain on the export sector. However, easing of monetary policy should allow for a further economic recovery.[9] 

Risks and positive stimulus

In addition to the consideration of the economic situation, for AKA’s business focus, it is important to assess the risks that arise from various international influencing factors. The biggest growth risks include global trade tensions due to a further increase in protectionism and greater fragmentation. Declining exports and a slowdown in the global economy could occur as a result. Related uncertainties may prevent investments from being recovered as much as expected.[10]Re-inflationary pressures in industrialised countries resulting from the above scenarios would delay or even reverse monetary easing. For some emerging markets, the risks of higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar lie in excessive debt service burden and less leeway for economic stimulus. In particular, geopolitical risks from Russia’s war against Ukraine or from the Middle East could lead to increased uncertainty. In addition, a development resulting from various issues can inhibit growth expectations and global trade: further geopolitical uncertainties, in particular an escalation in relation to Taiwan, a significant deterioration in the real estate crisis in China, political changes in larger countries, uncertain trade routes, interruptions in energy supply and infrastructure, ongoing climate change, natural disasters, and social upheaval.[11] 

On the other hand, a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war and in the Middle East would create positive stimulus. Increasing production volumes can dampen the price development in the commodity markets. An associated sharper drop in inflationary pressure would support the rate-cutting cycle for central banks, leading to stronger economic growth than forecast. Further positive effects would arise from trade policy solutions and relaxation, productivity gains via transformational advances, partly accelerated by reconstruction funds, a strengthening of the international community, stronger growth in the USA and China, and the mitigation of further geopolitical conflicts.[12] 

Opportunity report

The term “opportunities” is defined as the prospect of a possible future development or the occurrence of events that can lead to a positive forecast or deviation from targets for the company. In this respect, opportunities are to be understood as the opposite of risks.

Opportunities for AKA arise in particular from the AKA Strategy 2028, which was adopted in the 2024 financial year. The ECA-covered business will be expanded based on AKA’s existing strengths within and outside Germany. This includes strengthening the buyer loan business and the syndicated loan/agency business, and expanding structured ECA-covered financing. In particular, the expertise in the area of transformation finance is being broadened in general and in the AKA focus sectors. In parallel, a supplemental pillar is being set up in non-ECA-covered products (Acquisition Finance & Midcap Loans). It includes business areas in which the bank has expertise and wants to take advantage of market opportunities. The contact area with the shareholder banks should be expanded and strengthened by this supplemental pillar. In particular, if the weak economic development in Germany, especially in the export industry, experiences ground formation in a timely manner and creates turnaround, target over-fulfilments can be realised through the developed starting points.

Innovations in the field of artificial intelligence can generate more added value for AKA. Additional opportunities arise for AKA through an expansion of the refinancing options, primarily characterised by the implemented use of deposit brokering in 2024.

Forecast of developments

Based on the current developments and strengthened by the path taken in the implementation of the AKA Strategy 2028, AKA plans to achieve a new business volume of around EUR 1.8 billion across all product groups in 2025. The KPIs to date, which are determined by the Supervisory Board, will also be maintained in 2025. The KPIs’ return on equity before taxes, cost income ratio (before and after IIB), return on RWA, ratio of ESG Score 4+5 to net exposure, ratio of expected loss to exposure at default, and the total capital ratio are used to manage the overall bank. The Supervisory Board sets the key performance indicators as targets for the Management of AKA. The review of target achievement and internal control is carried out based on the reporting (internal monthly reporting and risk report). The reporting for external parties is also carried out as part of the management report. The objectives of the Supervisory Board are based on the results of the multi-year business planning and are derived from this.

These are consistent targets based on the approved planning. Based on the opportunities and further developments shown, and taking into account the economic and geopolitical framework conditions, AKA also continues to assume a sustainable business model for 2025.

---

Sources

[1] Cf. World Bank. Global Economic Prospects, January 2025. Washington, DC. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects. Short reference: World Bank 2025.

[2] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[3] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[4] Cf. European Commission. European Economic Forecast – Autumn 2024. Institutional Paper 296. URL: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/european-economic-forecast-autumn-2024_en.

[5] Cf. Europäische Zentralbank EZB. Wirtschaftsbericht. Ausgabe 8/2024. Erschienen 9.1.2025. [European Central Bank ECB. Economic report. Edition 8/2024. Appeared on 09/01/2025]. URL: https://www.bundesbank.de/de/publikationen/ezb/wirtschaftsberichte.

[6] Cf. ifo Institut. ifo Konjunkturprognose [ifo Economic Forecast] Winter 2024. URL: www.ifo.de/publikationen/2024/aufsatz-zeitschrift/ifo-konjunkturprognose-winter-2024.

[7] Cf. GTAI Germany Trade & Invest. Drehscheibe Zentralasien: Von vielen Seiten gewollt [Central Asia Hub: Wanted on many sides]. 20/09/2024. URL: www.gtai.de/de/trade/kasachstan/specials/drehscheibe-zentralasien-von-vielen-seiten-gewollt-1818214.

[8] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[9] Cf. World Bank 2025. 

[10] Cf. EZB [ECB] 2025.

[11] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[12] Cf. World Bank 2025.