Economic report 2024

In 2024, the global economy expanded moderately. The World Bank estimated global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 at 2.7 %, which corresponds to the previous year’s growth. Behind this, there are unequal developments between the individual sectors. In particular, the global industrial economy underperformed the global gross domestic product, which was supported primarily by less trade-intensive service sectors and country-specific government spending. Thanks to the progressed, to some extent tentative, disinflation process and the initiated easing of monetary policy in key industrialised countries and emerging markets, economic boosts occurred over the course of the year.[1]

In general, emerging markets performed more strongly than industrialised countries. In the full year, the aggregate expansion rate of industrialised countries was 1.7 %. Compared to the US, growth in Western Europe was subdued. Emerging markets, on the other hand, were again able to grow by 4.1 %. Commodity-importing countries benefited from continued easing of agricultural and energy prices. In some commodity-exporting countries, global weakness in demand from the industrial sector was noticeable.[2]

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) noted a recovery in global trade of goods, in line with the global economy, with a volume increase of around 2.7 % for 2024 (previous year: -1.2 %). Taking into account the (lower) commodity prices, world trade largely stagnated on a US dollar basis. In the second half of the year, momentum accelerated due to the anticipatory effects from the uncertainty about the future US trade policy, among other factors. Asia’s exports had the largest increase, driven by strong demand for technology-related goods. Central Asia was in the middle range. In Africa, exports weakened due to lower commodity prices.[3] Western European exporters experienced increasing competition from China and a deterioration in international competitiveness. A bilateral trade preference with countries with similar geopolitical interests (“friend shoring”) could be identified globally.[4]

Industrialised countries: USA – eurozone – Germany

In 2024, the US continued to enjoy a robust economy, with real GDP growth of 2.8 %, after 2.9 % in the previous year, supported by strong domestic private demand and stimulus from industrial policy programmes.

According to preliminary data from the EU Commission, the economic momentum in the eurozone rebounded slightly in 2024, with real GDP rising by 0.8 %, following a stagnation in the previous year.[5] Private consumption remained subdued despite an increase in purchasing power. Corporate investments were weak due to global political and regulatory uncertainties and the aftereffects of the recent tightening of monetary policy. Subdued export demand for industrial goods is putting a strain on economies, especially in the major automotive sector[6]

For Germany, GDP declined by 0.2 % for 2024. The state expanded its economic activities. Private consumption increased slightly as the purchasing restraint of private households decreased only modestly.[7] In significant and export-oriented sectors such as capital goods, the automotive sector, and energy-intensive industries, production continued to decline due to weak orders, increasing international competition, and structural challenges. In an international comparison, Germany is particularly affected by structural changes in the manufacturing sector (-3.0 %), enhanced by digitisation and decarbonisation. The restrained global industrial economy provided little stimulus for the export of German goods (-0.8 %). Imports were largely stagnant.[8]

Emerging and developing countries

According to current 2024 figures, economic growth in emerging markets remained robust at 4.1 % (previous year: 4.2 %). Domestic demand improved gradually, supported by better financing conditions and an upturn in lending business, which compensated for partly subdued foreign demand. A high degree of heterogeneity can be noted.[9]

According to the World Bank, high growth rates in South and East Asia were also fed by the increasing importance of digitisation. China’s economy was still suffering significantly from the property crisis in 2024, but had an industrially competitive export sector.[10]

The Central Asia region also exhibited dynamic growth, even though economic growth in 2024 was slightly lower at 4.7 % than in 2023 (5.6 %). The region’s largest economy, Uzbekistan, continued to experience above-average expansion at an expected rate of 6.0 %. Growth was broadly established: strong private consumption thanks to falling inflation rates and robust migrant remittances; government transfer services; and investments, supported by targeted lending from government banks and diversified raw material supply. In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, domestic demand benefited from robust migrant remittances. In neighbouring Azerbaijan, growth rebounded due to substantial public investment.[11]

In Eastern Europe, growth declined slightly in 2024 but remained with the international average. Turkey is expected to have grown at a more moderate 3.2 %, after a high 5.1 % in the previous year. A restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation dampened the previously active private consumption and investment, coupled with cuts in public projects. The correction of economic imbalances was evident in improved access to international capital markets.[12]

Sub-Saharan Africa continued to show stable growth rates on an aggregated basis with an estimated 3.2 %, with country-specific differences depending on raw material resources and agricultural vulnerabilities. Latin America, a weaker region in a global comparison, also showed heterogeneous growth rates in this regard[13]

International financing conditions

Global financing conditions improved slightly since mid-2024. The European Central Bank (ECB) started the rate-cut cycle in June and cut its key rate by 100 basis points to 3.0 % by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve (Fed) also cut policy rates by 100 basis points to 4.25-4.50 % from September to December 2024.[14] Numerous central banks from emerging markets had already cut rates earlier in light of their country-specific disinflation development[15]

Despite the easing of monetary policy, many industrialised countries and emerging markets saw only a moderate decline in long-term interest rates. In the US, these rose again to 4.6 % at the end of the year. For emerging markets with weaker credit ratings, the environment nevertheless enabled the high spreads on USD-denominated bonds of previous years to normalise, while little relief came from the underlying long-term interest rate level.[16]

Nevertheless, the global financing conditions for companies have improved slightly overall. Aggregated credit demand stabilised throughout the year and increased slightly in individual countries.[17] In the eurozone, bank lending had modest momentum, attributable to weak economic activity, more restrictive credit policies, and the aftereffects of previous rate hikes on the loan portfolio.[18]

Commodity prices

The performance of the global economy was reflected in stable commodity prices, with varying performance observed in individual segments. The oil price was volatile sideways and, at an average of USD 80 per barrel, was at a level similar to that of the previous year. Price drivers were geopolitical factors and more restrictive OPEC+ production policies, while a cyclically weaker global demand for oil had a downward effect on prices. The European gas price rose during the year, influenced by geopolitical factors, temperature forecasts, and increasing demand from gas power plants. Metal prices were volatile, impacted by increased demand for renewable energy, electromobility, and data centre expansion. Agricultural commodity prices developed unevenly.[19]

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Sources

[1] Cf. The World Bank. Global Economic Prospects, January 2025. Washington, DC. URL: www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects. Short reference: World Bank 2025. [2] Cf. The World Bank 2025.

[3] Cf. World Trade Organization (WTO). Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. Update October 2024. URL: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/gtos_e.htm.

[4] Cf. OECD. OECD Economic Outlook: Volume 2024 Issue 2. No. 116. URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/d8814e8b-en.

[5] Cf. Europäische Zentralbank EZB. Wirtschaftsbericht. Ausgabe 8/2024. Erschienen 9.1.2025 [European Central Bank ECB. Economic report. Edition 8/2024. Appeared on 09/01/2025]. URL: https://www.bundesbank.de/de/publikationen/ezb/wirtschaftsberichte.

[6] Cf. European Commission. European Economic Forecast – Autumn 2024. Institutional Paper 296. URL: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/european-economic-forecast-autumn-2024_en.

[7] Cf. Statistisches Bundesamt. Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2024 um 0,2 % gesunken. Pressemitteilung Nr. 019 vom 15. Januar 2025 [Federal Statistical Office. Gross domestic product decreased by 0.2 % in 2024. Press Release No. 019 dated 15 January 2025]. URL: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2025/01/PD25_019_811.html.

[8] Cf. ifo Konjunkturprognose [ifo Institut. ifo Economic Forecast] Winter 2024. URL: https://www.ifo.de/publikationen/2024/aufsatz-zeitschrift/ifo-konjunkturprognose-winter-2024.

[9] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[10] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[11] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[12] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[13] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[14] Cf. ECB 2025.

[15] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[16] Cf. World Bank 2025.

[17] Cf. OECD 2024.

[18] Cf. ECB 2025.

[19] Cf. ECB 2025.